Forecasters Predict Economic Recovery

Good times are just around the corner.

That's the forecast by an economic organization about the future of the East Bay's economy.

The East Bay Economic Development Alliance is releasing its annual economic status report Thursday during a breakfast in Oakland.

The report, prepared for the EDA by Beacon Economics of San Francisco, says that while "we're not out of the woods yet," the forecast for the East Bay economy is encouraging.

The study says the growth in trade at the Port of Oakland and the continuing strength of the region's clean-tech companies is attracting investment and providing evidence that the East Bay is on solid economic footing.

"While the recent recession hit the East Bay pretty hard and there are folks who are still struggling to get back into the work force, the indicators are all there for a solid economic rebound," said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics.

The unemployment rate in Contra Costa and Alameda counties remains around 10 percent. The economists don't expect the jobless rate to drop below 10 percent until early 2012. They also said non-farm employment in the East Bay won't rise above 1 million jobs until early 2013.

Nonetheless, they said the Port of Oakland is bolstering the East Bay's economy. The amount of California-made exports that went through the Oakland Port surpassed the Port of Los Angeles in 2010 for the first time.

They said the port's proximity to California's agricultural communities makes it convenient for farmers to ship goods overseas.

The report also says that the East Bay is "developing its own niche in clean tech." It states 40 percent of all venture capital dollars that came into the East Bay last year were plowed into the industrial energy sector.

They added that biotech companies such as Amyris Biotechnologies of Emeryville also are capturing a large share of venture capital.

Karen Engel, the EDA's executive director, said that while unemployment will remain high for another year or so the trends look good for job growth and business expansion.

"There's tremendous potential here," she said. "It all points the way to robust growth."

Engel said workers and small business owners should see things pick up as the investment capital fuels spending that trickles down to them.

"The fundamentals are good. The trend lines are good," she said.

The report also notes median home prices have stabilized over the past year. However, defaults and foreclosures are still high, so the housing market recovery will be slow.

One bright spot in the housing industry is the increase in permits to build multi-family dwellings.

The report says that the East Bay was one of California's fastest growing economic regions before the recession. It predicts the region soon will be one of the state's growth markets again.